Politics Makes Headlines. Economics Drives the Texas Housing Market.

Whether you agree with that decision or not really isn't the point.

The question is, does it change the direction of the Texas housing market?

Personally, I don't think it does.

I've been saying for months that I believe Texas is setting up for another strong run over the next several years. It probably won't look like the insanity of 2021 when houses were getting twenty offers in a weekend, but I do think we're laying the groundwork for a healthy market again.

Here's why.

The correction we've had was needed.

Prices got ahead of themselves.

Interest rates jumped.

Buyers hit the pause button.

Builders finally caught up on inventory.

That's actually how healthy markets reset.

Now we're starting to see buyers come back. Inventory is becoming more manageable. Sellers are adjusting expectations. Homes that are priced correctly are selling.

That's a much healthier market than what we had a few years ago.

The other thing I keep watching has nothing to do with Washington.

Companies are still moving to Texas.

People are still moving to Texas.

The state continues to create jobs.

Technology, AI, manufacturing, energy, healthcare...Texas continues to attract investment from almost every sector.

Those things create housing demand.

A bill in Washington might help around the edges by making it easier to build housing or reducing regulations, and those are good things. But I don't think that's what's going to determine whether Texas has another housing boom.

People need places to live.

Businesses need places to expand.

Families continue relocating here from higher-cost states because Texas still offers opportunities they can't find elsewhere.

That's what creates long-term demand.

Now, do I think we're going back to 20% appreciation every year?

No.

Frankly, that doesn’t seem to be sustainable

That's not healthy for buyers or sellers.

I'd much rather see steady appreciation, balanced inventory, and a market where buyers have time to think before making one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives.

As someone who's been through multiple real estate cycles, I've learned something.

The headlines almost never tell the whole story.

When the news is screaming that the market is crashing, good opportunities are usually starting to appear.

When everyone thinks prices can only go up, that's usually when I get nervous.

Right now, I think we're somewhere in the middle.

The Texas market has already taken its medicine.

Austin especially has gone through one of the bigger corrections in the country. That's painful if you bought at the peak, but it's also what creates the foundation for the next cycle.

Could something derail it?

Absolutely.

If mortgage rates stay high longer than expected, or if we enter a recession, that changes the equation.

But sitting here today, looking at the fundamentals—not the politics—I like where Texas is headed.

I've always believed that over the long run, people bet on Texas.

History says that's usually been a pretty good bet.